If early polling is any indication it doesn’t appear that either presidential candidate got any kind of significant bounce in the polls following their party conventions last month. Polls taken after the Democratic National convention showed that Joe Biden did not see a bump in his polling numbers, and actually saw his lead sliding in some swing states. While President Donald Trump may have gotten a small bump out of his convention he still clearly trails Biden. Retired Ripon College political scientist Marty Farrell says if later polling data confirms this early evidence, a Trump victory hinges on him becoming the first incumbent in over 70 years to come from behind after trailing following the major party conventions. No elected incumbent since World War Two has ever picked up more than four points when comparing the post-convention polls and the final result. Most incumbents lose ground.
